科技帶來人類社會的進步已經是公認的事實，然而今日科技的發展演變已經被認為將可能對勞工及工作場所帶來破壞性的效果。許多學者也已警告了科技帶來大量失業的可能性 (Durrant-Whyte et al. 2015; Thompson 2015)，雖然有些學者認為尚不盡然 (Borland and Coelli 2017)。關心科技對就業市場的衝擊並非新鮮事，至少從二十世紀中葉就已經有許多討論，甚至於有人認為從產業革命開始即已發生 (Autor 2015)。然而為何今日又再挑起相關的論述，就是因為今日科技變遷的本質和速度已經與過去大有不同，今日科技所產生的 “趨同改變” 的 ”增強效應” (convergence reinforcing effect) 已經無法忽視，意思就是我們已經無法只簡單地從過去科技進步創造就業機會的軌跡 (Wajcman 2017)來預測未來的影響。
最關鍵的差異在於科技之演進究竟是會導致就業機會的破壞 (job destruction) 或是就業機會的轉型(job transformation) ? 一方面，我們幾乎已經可以預見，在未來十年間許多工作與勞工將受到先進的機器與科技發展之影響; 另一方面企業也將擁有更多機會重新塑造其生產流程，節省勞動力，或者採行新的商業模式(business model)。對於大多數勞工言，這些發展的結果將比較不像是受到被解雇所產生的危害，而是許多勞工將發現他們的角色或技能將必須調整，學習如何與日漸有能力的機器一起工作。
假如這就是我們即將見到的勞動市場的場景，勞動的研究顯然將會開展出一場新且有趣的方向。例如: 工作如何轉換? 或者重新設計? 這些過程又是如何去協商與達成共識? 誰來決定哪個工作項目是該誰來做? 機器?還是人? 那麼因此所需的勞動條件又該是如何，以滿足此狀況下的工作得以進行? 究竟在此勞動場景中，勞工或工會有甚麼機會能夠在決策過程中提出他們的反對、抗拒、或者建議修正? 那麼因此是否需要新的或與現況不同的法制規範等?
科技發展也將衍生更廣泛的對於勞動市場如何運作以及工作如何操作的定義之改變。不只影響工作如何創造的過程、破壞、以及轉型，也將會影響商業模式以及組織架構。已經有許多新的商業模式來自科技的加持，改變了勞動力交換的方式 (Gahan et al. 2017). 平台經濟例如Uber, Airtasker and Deliveroo等都是其中的嬌嬌者，亦即人們所稱的零工經濟 ‘gig economy’ – 此種經濟模式下的勞動力交換是變化無常的，在勞動力交換過程中的雙方，其義務較傳統型態的就業關係是相對弱化的 (Stewart and Stanford 2017)。雖然他們可以提供較多的就業機會，但是此種經濟模式也產生更多威脅，包括職責的碎裂化、雇用給付模糊化、以及威脅最低勞動標準和職業安全 (Bornstein 2015; Mishel 2015)。
人們當然也會關注機器學習的科技變遷可能的影響，然而零工經濟會繼續吸引人們的目光，因為此種經濟模式後面還有更多對於經濟與社會發展可能造成的影響。對已開發國家而言，這些影相趨勢包括人口老化、薪資停滯、越來越增的社會不平等 (包含降低的勞動者所得配比)，以及下降的勞動參與率等。在開發中國家，因為大量使用科技以及全球化下的供應鏈，使這些國家的經濟有了大幅成長 (Baldwin 2016)，然而今日的科技發展將可能剝奪他們在經濟發展途徑上的一個重要資產--也就是他們在經濟上的比較利益之所在--廉價勞動力，就是在這些國家尚未到達已開發階段之成長前，生產將會回歸到已開發國家 (Avent 2016)，不再需要利用他們的廉價勞動力。
全世界所有的勞動者都將受到科技變遷以及其他相關因素之影響，但是這些影響究竟如何並未受到充分研究或者建立理論。未來因為科技變遷受到影響的勞動將需要更多的探討，開展吾人對此議題之認知。
It is well understood that technology has brought about progress in human society, but the evolution of technology today has been considered to have potentially devastating effects on workers and workplaces. Many scholars have also warned of the possibility of massive unemployment due to technology (Durrant-Whyte et al. 2015; Thompson 2015), although some scholars believe that this is not always the case (Borland and Coelli 2017).
Concerned about the impact of technology on the job market is not new, and there has been much discussion since at least the mid-twentieth century, even suggesting that the Industrial Revolution began (Autor 2015). The reason why this discussion is provoked today is --because the nature and speed of technological change today is very different from the past; and the "convergence change" produced by today's technology "reinforcing effect" is impossible to ignore, meaning that we can no longer predict future impacts simply from past trajectory of technological progress and job creation (Wajcman 2017).
The key difference is whether the evolution of technology leads to job destruction or job transformation. Companies will have more opportunities to reshape their production processes, save labor, or adopt new business models. For most workers, the result of these developments will be less of a hazard from being fired, but that many will find that their roles or skills will have to be adapted to learn how to work with increasingly smart machines.
If this is the scenario we are about to see in the labor market, it is clear that the study of work will take on a new and interesting direction. For example, how does the job convert, or redesign? How do these processes negotiate and reach consensus? Who decides what task should be performed by whom, machine or human being? What are the working conditions required to meet the needs of such a situation? How workers or unions express their thinking in the process of decision making, to oppose, resist, or to adjust? Whether a new or different model of regulations from current model is needed, etc.?
Technological developments will also lead to broader changes in the definition of how the labor market works and how work works. Not only will it affect how work is created, disrupted, and transformed, but also business models and organizational structures. Many new business models already have come from technology to change the way labor is exchanged (Gahan et al. 2017). Such as Uber, Airtasker and Deliveroo are among those big names, known as the 'gig economy' – the exchange of labor in this economic model is fickle on both sides of the labor exchange process. The obligations of the parties are relatively weaker than traditional forms of employment relations (Stewart and Stanford 2017). While they may provide more jobs, this economic model also poses additional threats, including fragmentation of duties, ambiguity of employment payments, and threats to minimum labor standards and occupational safety (Bornstein 2015; Mishel 2015)。
People will of course be concerned about the possible impact of technological changes in machine learning, but the gig economy will continue to attract attention because there are many possible impacts on economic and social development underlined by this economic model. For developed countries, these trends may lead to ageing populations, stagnant wages, increasing social inequality (including lower labor income ratios) and declining workforce participation rates. In developing countries, where the heavy use of technology and globalized supply chains have led to significant economic growth (Baldwin 2016). Yet today's technological developments may deprive them of an important asset in their path to economic development -- cheap labor. It means that before these countries have reached the developed stage of growth, production will return to developed countries (Avent 2016) since cheap labor may be replaced by new technology, and developed countries will no longer need to use cheap labor.
All workers around the world will be affected by technological change and other related factors, but the exact extent to which these effects have yet being fully studied or theorized. How technological changes affect the future world of work needs more exploration to extend our understanding of the subject.
最關鍵的差異在於科技之演進究竟是會導致就業機會的破壞 (job destruction) 或是就業機會的轉型(job transformation) ? 一方面，我們幾乎已經可以預見，在未來十年間許多工作與勞工將受到先進的機器與科技發展之影響; 另一方面企業也將擁有更多機會重新塑造其生產流程，節省勞動力，或者採行新的商業模式(business model)。對於大多數勞工言，這些發展的結果將比較不像是受到被解雇所產生的危害，而是許多勞工將發現他們的角色或技能將必須調整，學習如何與日漸有能力的機器一起工作。
假如這就是我們即將見到的勞動市場的場景，勞動的研究顯然將會開展出一場新且有趣的方向。例如: 工作如何轉換? 或者重新設計? 這些過程又是如何去協商與達成共識? 誰來決定哪個工作項目是該誰來做? 機器?還是人? 那麼因此所需的勞動條件又該是如何，以滿足此狀況下的工作得以進行? 究竟在此勞動場景中，勞工或工會有甚麼機會能夠在決策過程中提出他們的反對、抗拒、或者建議修正? 那麼因此是否需要新的或與現況不同的法制規範等?
科技發展也將衍生更廣泛的對於勞動市場如何運作以及工作如何操作的定義之改變。不只影響工作如何創造的過程、破壞、以及轉型，也將會影響商業模式以及組織架構。已經有許多新的商業模式來自科技的加持，改變了勞動力交換的方式 (Gahan et al. 2017). 平台經濟例如Uber, Airtasker and Deliveroo等都是其中的嬌嬌者，亦即人們所稱的零工經濟 ‘gig economy’ – 此種經濟模式下的勞動力交換是變化無常的，在勞動力交換過程中的雙方，其義務較傳統型態的就業關係是相對弱化的 (Stewart and Stanford 2017)。雖然他們可以提供較多的就業機會，但是此種經濟模式也產生更多威脅，包括職責的碎裂化、雇用給付模糊化、以及威脅最低勞動標準和職業安全 (Bornstein 2015; Mishel 2015)。
人們當然也會關注機器學習的科技變遷可能的影響，然而零工經濟會繼續吸引人們的目光，因為此種經濟模式後面還有更多對於經濟與社會發展可能造成的影響。對已開發國家而言，這些影相趨勢包括人口老化、薪資停滯、越來越增的社會不平等 (包含降低的勞動者所得配比)，以及下降的勞動參與率等。在開發中國家，因為大量使用科技以及全球化下的供應鏈，使這些國家的經濟有了大幅成長 (Baldwin 2016)，然而今日的科技發展將可能剝奪他們在經濟發展途徑上的一個重要資產--也就是他們在經濟上的比較利益之所在--廉價勞動力，就是在這些國家尚未到達已開發階段之成長前，生產將會回歸到已開發國家 (Avent 2016)，不再需要利用他們的廉價勞動力。
全世界所有的勞動者都將受到科技變遷以及其他相關因素之影響，但是這些影響究竟如何並未受到充分研究或者建立理論。未來因為科技變遷受到影響的勞動將需要更多的探討，開展吾人對此議題之認知。
It is well understood that technology has brought about progress in human society, but the evolution of technology today has been considered to have potentially devastating effects on workers and workplaces. Many scholars have also warned of the possibility of massive unemployment due to technology (Durrant-Whyte et al. 2015; Thompson 2015), although some scholars believe that this is not always the case (Borland and Coelli 2017).
Concerned about the impact of technology on the job market is not new, and there has been much discussion since at least the mid-twentieth century, even suggesting that the Industrial Revolution began (Autor 2015). The reason why this discussion is provoked today is --because the nature and speed of technological change today is very different from the past; and the "convergence change" produced by today's technology "reinforcing effect" is impossible to ignore, meaning that we can no longer predict future impacts simply from past trajectory of technological progress and job creation (Wajcman 2017).
The key difference is whether the evolution of technology leads to job destruction or job transformation. Companies will have more opportunities to reshape their production processes, save labor, or adopt new business models. For most workers, the result of these developments will be less of a hazard from being fired, but that many will find that their roles or skills will have to be adapted to learn how to work with increasingly smart machines.
If this is the scenario we are about to see in the labor market, it is clear that the study of work will take on a new and interesting direction. For example, how does the job convert, or redesign? How do these processes negotiate and reach consensus? Who decides what task should be performed by whom, machine or human being? What are the working conditions required to meet the needs of such a situation? How workers or unions express their thinking in the process of decision making, to oppose, resist, or to adjust? Whether a new or different model of regulations from current model is needed, etc.?
Technological developments will also lead to broader changes in the definition of how the labor market works and how work works. Not only will it affect how work is created, disrupted, and transformed, but also business models and organizational structures. Many new business models already have come from technology to change the way labor is exchanged (Gahan et al. 2017). Such as Uber, Airtasker and Deliveroo are among those big names, known as the 'gig economy' – the exchange of labor in this economic model is fickle on both sides of the labor exchange process. The obligations of the parties are relatively weaker than traditional forms of employment relations (Stewart and Stanford 2017). While they may provide more jobs, this economic model also poses additional threats, including fragmentation of duties, ambiguity of employment payments, and threats to minimum labor standards and occupational safety (Bornstein 2015; Mishel 2015)。
People will of course be concerned about the possible impact of technological changes in machine learning, but the gig economy will continue to attract attention because there are many possible impacts on economic and social development underlined by this economic model. For developed countries, these trends may lead to ageing populations, stagnant wages, increasing social inequality (including lower labor income ratios) and declining workforce participation rates. In developing countries, where the heavy use of technology and globalized supply chains have led to significant economic growth (Baldwin 2016). Yet today's technological developments may deprive them of an important asset in their path to economic development -- cheap labor. It means that before these countries have reached the developed stage of growth, production will return to developed countries (Avent 2016) since cheap labor may be replaced by new technology, and developed countries will no longer need to use cheap labor.
All workers around the world will be affected by technological change and other related factors, but the exact extent to which these effects have yet being fully studied or theorized. How technological changes affect the future world of work needs more exploration to extend our understanding of the subject.
- Teacher: 世偉 潘